Forecast Discussion

Issued 03/22/2026 8:05 p.m. MDT / 7:05 p.m. PDT

SHORT TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY):

     Strong upper level ridging that has dominated much of the Central and Western Half of the lower 48 will amplify a bit on Monday ahead of a deepening upper level trough that is pushing through the Eastern Pacific. As this deepening upper level trough continues its eastward trek it will help to pick up a surface low that is currently spinning north of the Hawaiian Islands. This surface low will rapidly deepen as it encounters the jet dynamics of a rather active North Pacific polar jet stream which will be the driver for the amplification of the upper level ridge across the Western US. Monday will see an increase in high level cloudiness which may make for more of a filtered sunshine in the afternoon and not as much blue sky as was the case on Sunday region wide. Warm air advection will be taking place however so after a seasonably cool start on Monday temperatures will warm further and be close to 6 to 10 degrees above late March seasonal averages across the region. By Monday night cloud cover will be fairly extensive so temperatures will not be nearly as chilly Tuesday morning as they will be Monday morning and well above seasonal averages. As the approaching upper level trough and surface low pushes into the West Coast a strong baroclinic zone with strong forcing(vertical motion) and surface convergence will develop and help cause some very beneficial rains to develop and fall across all of the Northern Rockies starting across North Idaho around or either side of noon and by early to mid afternoon across Northwest Montana. Unfortunately with warm air advection being one of the drivers of the strong vertical motion along the baroclinic zone this will mean snow levels rising above most mountains in our region with the exception of those highest peaks above 6500 feet or so. Rainfall looks to be be between 0.25 inches in the drier parts of Sanders and Lincoln Counties in Northwest Montana to perhaps an inch or more in the wetter areas of Bonner County and Lincoln/Sanders Counties. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday thanks to the clouds and precipitation.     

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): 

     The incoming upper level trough and baroclinic zone will push across the region overnight Tuesday bringing a 12 to 18 hour period of steady, stratiform precipitation mostly in the form of rain before snow levels come crashing down towards morning on Wednesday. During the day on Wednesday, a cold and conditionally unstable airmass within the upper level trough will pass overhead and provide shallow instability to generate scattered to numerous rain and snow showers with snow levels lowering down to near valley floors. These types of patterns often favor North Idaho and Northwest Montana west of the Cabinet Mountains with the most frequent showers with other locations seeing more isolated to scattered showers. Higher elevations could pick up a few inches of snow above around 5000 feet especially in the Selkirk and Cabinet Mountains. A cool and conditionally unstable westerly flow will persist on Thursday across the Northern Rockies and with daytime heating will likely see a few more rain and snow showers develop although not as widespread as what will fall on Wednesday. There may be slightly better coverage across Northwest Montana on Thursday with perhaps a bit better instability residing across this region but that remains to be seen. By Friday and lasting into next weekend another upper level ridge will build across the Western US ahead of yet another digging and amplifying upper level trough in the Pacific. This ridge also looks to be rather transient but should provide at least 2 to 3 days of warm and somewhat sunny weather. Temperatures will once again soar to around 10 degrees above late March seasonal averages next weekend. A final note: last weeks abundance of cloudiness and yet little rainfall overall was attributed to a so called "atmospheric river" and most TV weather people and meteorologists were focusing on how much moisture there was in the atmosphere associated with this. While there was an abundance of moisture there really was not a lot of precipitation that fell anywhere other than in the Cascade Mountains. If moisture is the primary ingredient needed for precipitation then our entire region should have seen copious amounts of precipitation but the truth is that this simply did not happen. The areas that did see some more significant precipitation were focused in the mountains once again proving that moisture is simply a by product of vertical motion through the atmosphere and NOT a primary ingredient. So the next time you hear someone talking about moisture being a primary ingredient for precipitation, remind them that this is simply FALSE and that vertical motion through the atmosphere is the primary ingredient to generate precipitation. 

Issued 03/12/2026 8:00 p.m. MDT / 7:00 p.m. PDT

SHORT TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY):

     As anticipated, strong, damaging winds did surface across portions of the region on Wednesday night/early Thursday morning especially in areas that saw precipitation loading on the windward side of local mountain ranges such as the Selkirks and Cabinets but were "shadowed out" on the lee side of said mountain ranges. These locations include Bonners Ferry and Libby which were two of the hardest hit areas in the Northern Rockies as the moisture depth shallowed for a period of time after the surface low passed by to the north. Areas such as Bull Lake and Priest Lake saw light precipitation ongoing with favorable upslope flow in those areas with the shallow moisture depth while the stronger winds aloft were transported downward on the lee side of the mountain ranges. This, coupled with the tight surface pressure gradient resulted in very strong winds in the Boundary County in North Idaho as well as around Libby in Northwest Montana. A strong jet remains positioned overhead as of this writing with an approaching shortwave pushing into British Columbia. This will spin up another, albiet much weaker surface low but more importantly will provide greater vertical motion and surface convergence along the jet axis to generate a round of steady snowfall across much of the region. It's possible that snow advisory criteria will be met especially across southern Bonner County and much of Sanders County but no advisories or warnings are in place for our region as of this writing on Thursday evening. There is a Winter Storm Warning for portions of Sanders County but that is more for the Thompson Pass area with that road being closed at this time so have not included it in the forecast. In fairness the warning is really for Lookout Pass which is outside of Sanders County. Still anticipate snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches by Friday morning in valley locations although would not be surprised to see some areas across southern Sanders County closer to the Coeur d'Alene Mountains see closer to 5 or even 6 inches below 3000 feet. Above 3000 feet snowfall totals look to be between 3 to 6 inches although up to 8 to 10 inches is possible across southern Sanders County in the Coeur d'Alene Mountains. The snow will be of the heavy and wet variety on valley floors and may only be slush on road surfaces as temperatures will not drop much overnight with the precipitation and lack of strong cold air advection. The area of surface convergence will shift south on Friday morning and much of the day on Friday should be cloudy but relatively dry past mid morning once the snow band pushes south of the region. This area of surface convergence shifts north again on Friday night into Saturday with more light snow spreading back over the region once again. Areas that are most likely to remain drier throughout this period are Boundary County and areas north of Libby to Trego in Lincoln County with areas along the Canadian border possibly only seeing trace to perhaps an inch of snow. Temperatures will actually be cooler than seasonal averages for the first time in a long time over the next two days. The snowfall will be excellent news for our rather paltry snow pack and we will take as much snow as we can get at this time to help alleviate the lack of summer runoff likely this year.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): 

     The northwesterly oriented jet will continue to reside in close proximity to the Northern Rockies through the weekend with another shortwave pushing through on Sunday afternoon into Monday before upper level ridging begins to slowly amplify across the region. One last round of snow across all elevations will start in North Idaho during the day on Sunday and spread into Northwest Montana by late in the day and overnight. By Monday as this shortwave exits warm air advection will begin to take over rather strongly with any snow quickly changing over to rain for elevations below 6000 feet before coming to an end. This will be the start of a significant warming trend that will unfortunately deplete a lot of the snowfall that we have accumulated over the past few days. The building upper level ridge will be incredibly strong for this time of year associated with a very warm airmass. Starting Tuesday the jet stream will shift northward into Canada but still will be close enough for our region to see periodic shortwaves passing through and bringing a few showers. These will fall as rain across all elevations as snow levels will be up near 9000 feet or even higher! Temperatures would likely be in record high territory if it weren't for all of the cloud cover we are anticipating with the jet stream relatively close and passing shower chances. Anticipate a high amount of "spring fever" by the middle to end of next week. This forecaster would not get too excited just yet as there are signs that by next weekend or a little after colder and wetter conditions will return to the region. This is the Northern Rockies after all and we should all be used to several "false springs" with this being the first or second one of the year. Only difference this year is that we never really ever had winter.