Forecast Discussion

Issued 02/09/2026 6:00 p.m. MST / 5:00 p.m. PST

SHORT TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY):

     Weak shortwave will continue to move out of the area Monday evening with a broad, colder upper level trough taking up residence across much of Western North America. Here in the Northern Rockies we will between the split Polar Jet with one jet axis aligned across Central BC and AB and the southern branch diving south into California. Unfortunately that means our region will remain void of any vertical motion or lift to generate precipitation with the sun angle still too low at this time of year for surface heating to generate convection so our forecast will remain dry for the next several days. Will see temperatures at night finally begin to drop closer to seasonal averages or in the upper teens to mid 20s once we clear out some of the lower level clouds of Monday but our afternoon highs will continue to run above seasonal averages with atmospheric heights and thickness values still running a touch higher than normal for this time of year. With a relatively stable airmass in place will likely see at least areas of freezing fog and low clouds develop overnight and last through late morning in the valleys but with the colder air aloft the low clouds will likely break up during the afternoon hours. We are increasing daylight by over 3 minutes a day now and the sun angle continues to rapidly climb in the sky so these factors, along with the lack of snow cover will prevent stratus from remaining locked in place across valleys.             

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY): 

     Split flow will remain across the region through the end of the work week before perhaps a more consolidated system begins to approach the Washington coastline by Friday. My gut feeling however is that this system will also tend to split as it pushes closer to our region with a more consolidated pattern likely holding off until sometime the following week (week of February 15th). The system moving in by Friday afternoon does look to have enough consolidation and upper level jet support to bring at least a good chance of snow across our region this upcoming holiday weekend although amounts do not currently look very impressive but at this point any snowfall is welcome. Without any strong lift, convergence or dynamics any snow that does fall during the daylight hours will most likely not stick below 3500 feet given how unseasonably warm it has been and coupled with the higher February sun angle will result in quick melting of any snow that does fall in the lower elevations. Higher elevations will see a better chance for snow to accumulate but early estimates this far out would suggest generally less than a foot over a 4 day period so nothing to really get excited about. The PNA pattern looks to remain in a largely negative phase for the next few weeks with the aid of the MJO now in Phase Space 2 and forecasted to slowly move into Phase Space 3 (Indian Ocean) which corresponds to cooler and wetter conditions for our region. In addition CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show temperatures leaning below average and precipitation leaning above average which are both good signals for at least some snowfall but again, at this time, no big storms are anticipated.

Issued 02/07/2026 8:55 p.m. MST / 7:55 p.m. PST

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY):

     We are finally seeing a pattern change that has been advertised for over a week now in the models although still not a very favorable one for much snowfall for our region. Snow levels have been lower than originally forecasted and have thus lowered snow levels to reflect this with snow falling down at Schweitzer Village as of this writing which sits at about 4000 feet. Mountains above 4000 feet should see 2 to 4 inches with local amounts up to 5 inches overnight before the leading shortwave exits to the east by sunrise on Sunday. The upper level jet will remain overhead but lift and dynamics will be lacking until the next, stronger shortwave develops along and helps buckle the jet northward Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. With the aid of a weak surface low developing along the baroclinic zone a broad area of stratiform rain that will change to snow even down to valley floors will develop in a deformation zone on the north and west side of the surface low. There is more agreement in this evenings model runs of the surface low passing further south which means that much of our region will now likely miss out on seeing some significant snowfall although southern Sanders County will have the best chances of seeing more significant snowfall. This feature will likely produce another 1 to 3 inches below 3500 to 4000 feet with 3 to 6 inches of snow above these elevations. Sadly because our local ski resorts are well to the north of this passing feature the best chances for accumulating snowfall for Schweitzer, Turner and Big Mountains will be tonight with colder but drier conditions now anticipated for Sunday night into Monday. This could change though if the surface low develops and pushes further north than currently forecasted. Temperatures will remain near to a bit above average for this time of year. Monday will see shallow instability under upper level westerly flow so can't rule out isolated to scattered snow showers across the region although the best chances will remain across North Idaho during this time frame but any amounts will be light and likely won't stick during the day given the warm conditions and higher February sun angle.        

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY):

     We will remain under a broad scale upper level troughy pattern although the polar jet will be split with the stronger, northern branch across Central British Columbia and the southern branch further south pushing into California giving the Sierra Nevada a good boost to their snowpack. Unfortunately still no strong storms on the horizon for the remainder of this week although could see a better organized system try to push into the Northern Rockies by next weekend. The models are still somewhat split on whether this feature will also split or hold together long enough to bring some more organized snowfall to our region. Tough to say which will verify but given the way this winter(or lack thereof) has materialized thus far my gut feeling is that this system too will split with the majority of it likely to head south into California again. Temperatures will likely begin to trend a little cooler by next weekend as colder air begins to shift further west across British Columbia and Alberta with the potential of this airmass to eventually begin to spill into our region sometime during the 3rd week of February(week of February 15th) sometime but will have to wait and see. Not really seeing much hope of any significant snow storms either on the horizon and at this point the odds of helping to rebuild our already incredibly low snow pack are extremely slim, not impossible but highly unlikely. On a final note this winter is once again a classic example of why it is simply stupid for the media and TV weather people to say that because we are in a La Nina year it means a cold and snowy winter for the Northwest or an El Nino year means a warm and dry winter for the Northwest. The numbers actually tell a different story at least for us in the Northern Rockies with our heaviest snowfall years and worst winters on record in North Idaho and Northwest Montana having occurred during El Nino years and the snowiest winter in recorded history for our region (Winter of 1996-1997) occurring during a neutral year meaning no El Nino or La Nina. There are simply too many other factors that go into the atmosphere to put all your eggs in one basket so to speak.