Forecast Discussion

Issued 07/04/2026 8:00 p.m. MDT / 7:00 p.m. PDT

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY):       

      Fairly quiet conditions for the short-term portion of the forecast. A passing shortwave to the north of our region along with surface pressure falls across Montana has resulted in elevated afternoon west to southwest winds across our region but these will largely be decreasing by sunset and should make for a wonderful evening for everyone that will be out enjoying Independence Day celebrations. Warm conditions will return for Sunday with slightly less breezy conditions but the atmosphere will remain stable. By Monday a surface high is projected to slide southeast along the front range of the Northern Rockies into southern Alberta/northern Montana. This will create a tightening surface gradient as a thermal trough begins to deepen in the Columbia Basin of Washington so expect some increase of northeast winds after midnight on Sunday into Monday morning in the areas that are exposed to these winds (ie: portions of Lake Koocanusa, Noxon, Sandpoint and the Purcell Trench from Sandpoint south) as well as across ridge tops. Where these winds surface temperatures will remain very much elevated and uncomfortable for sleeping as the atmosphere will be further drying and warming. Winds won't be too strong but could see some gusts around 20 to 25 mph in the late night/early morning hours of Monday especially along portions of Lake Koocanusa and in those favored canyons across Northwest Montana. Temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above early July seasonal averages.   

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): 

     Will be watching a weak upper level low that is currently spinning off the Southern California coastline as of this writing on Saturday evening. This feature is anticipated to begin moving northwest parallel to the California coastline before moving inland across Central Oregon during the day on Monday. Instability will be increasing with thunderstorms anticipated to break out across much of Central and Northeast Oregon. As this feature moves northeast Monday night into early Tuesday morning we could see some elevated, forced convection break out across the Northern Rockies although at this time it looks more likely that the upper level low and it's associated instability and jet dynamics may remain too far south to bring us much more than perhaps a few clouds. Still with as dry as conditions are have included mention of a slight chance of showers/thunder for Monday night into Tuesday morning to bring attention to this possibility. By Wednesday an approaching shortwave will pass by the region knocking temperatures back down close to seasonal averages, increasing winds and possibly bringing a few showers mainly to North Idaho and more likely across Boundary County. This will not be a big rain maker but any rainfall we can get at this point would be very beneficial given how dry May and June were across the Northern Rockies and all areas with the exception of the Eureka and Rexford areas were well below their normal May and June rainfalls. Wednesday also is looking rather breezy if not windy as gusty winds will accompany the airmass change as surface pressures rise in the cooler air west of the Cascades and surface pressures fall east across Montana where hot weather will be more prevalent. Some uncertainty in the end of this forecast period. All models show a strengthening continental ridge setting up across the Intermountain West which is typical for this time of year. The uncertainty lies in how much this ridge will amplify and where it's axis will set up. This is also due in part to an equally strong Gulf of Alaska upper level low that will also be amplifying offshore. If the ridge axis lines up more north/south then our region can anticipate a major warm up with hot conditions developing with 90s becoming widespread across valley locations with our typical hot spots in Northwest Montana likely seeing 100 degrees or hotter. If the ridge axis remains more positively tilted and anchored across eastern Montana and the Dakotas then our temperatures will be close to seasonal averages in the 80s but with breezy to possibly windy conditions each day. Overall conditions do look to remain dry through the period although if the more north/south ridge axis does indeed occur then it is also likely that we will need to watch for shortwaves rotating around the ridge along with any vort maxes as these would bring increased threats of mainly elevated, forced convection across our region. Stay tuned! 

Issued 06/21/2026 8:10 p.m. MDT / 7:10 p.m. PDT

SHORT TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY):       

     A cool upper level low continues to spin across Northern Alberta with the northwesterly flow around this feature directing a couple of weak vort maxes coupled with a bit of instability to provide just enough lift to generate a few showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the Lincoln County border with BC and AB but a couple of stray cells could clip Boundary County north of Bonners Ferry this evening. One last shortwave will skirt to the north of the International Border on Monday but there is just enough lift and instability with LI(lifted index values) of 0 to -1 coupled with this shortwave to provide one or two showers or thunderstorms around Eureka south to about Trego. Better chances will remain north of the border and further east into North Central Montana. Temperatures will rebound a bit on Monday after cooling some on Sunday and will further rise into Tuesday. A surface high will slide south east of the Divide during the day on Monday while a surface thermal trough begins to develop across Central Washington which will create a bit of a northeast gradient. This will manifest itself as some increasing northeast breezes during the afternoon on Monday and will continue into Tuesday.         LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY): 

     Some changes are in store for this portion of the forecast. Initial concerns will revolve around warm to hot temperatures on Tuesday into Wednesday along with the potential of our first of the season round of elevated, forced convection. Models have been picking up on elevated instability rotating into the region from the southwest ahead of the incoming upper level trough that will still be well offshore on Wednesday but the upper level ridge across the Intermountain West will also be shifting further east. This pattern is notorious for picking up weak, poorly defined vort maxes or shortwaves that have a way of sneaking up on our region. These are important as often they will kick off nocturnal convection with very little warning. The GFS has oddly enough been picking up on one of these still unidentifiable features for the past couple of runs now and with fuels as dry as they are have included "slight chance" wording in the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well as potentially Wednesday morning. These will be high based, fairly quick moving showers and thunderstorms if they occur that typically have high cloud bases, narrow but locally intense rain or hail cores but more troubling is the lightning strikes and gusty winds that occur well outside of the cores of these storms. Will need to monitor this to see if it comes to pass. Bigger changes arrive by Friday as a developing strong shortwave develops on Tuesday in the West Pacific and rides along a strong, robust jet stream for June across the North Pacific and plows into the region. This system will be more typical of those seen in the early fall as it looks to have a good baroclinic zone featuring a swath of stable, straiform rainfall followed by a cool and unstable airmass with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Snow levels also will be dropping with this system, perhaps down to 6000 feet or perhaps a little lower. Typically systems like this one tend to favor North Idaho with more widespread, beneficial precipitation with the baroclinic zone with Northwest Montana more likely to see precipitation in the colder, post frontal airmass with showers and isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures by next weekend will feel very cool with many areas possibly not even rising out of the 50s especially if clouds and showers are persistent. If camping or hiking, again be prepared for snow and cold temperatures.    

Issued 06/16/2026 7:35 p.m. MDT / 6:35 p.m. PDT

SHORT TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY):       

     An approaching upper level trough is currently pushing across our region with the tightening thermal gradient along with a robust jet stream aloft helping to generate the breezy day experienced across the region. As the upper level trough progresses inland the thermal and surface pressure gradients will relax allowing winds to also calm down overnight except for higher elevations which will remain breezy through mid to late afternoon on Wednesday. A weak shortwave will be dropping southeast on the backside of the departing upper level trough and looks to have enough surface convergence and instability aloft to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms mainly along the Canadian border, especially across Northwest Montana and then south mainly to the east of Lake Koocanusa. Can't completely rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm further west if the shortwave tracks further west but this seems very unlikely at this time. Thereafter surface high pressure will slide southeast out of British Columbia on Thursday with a dry and stable airmass. The surface high along with rising temperatures across the Columbia Basin in Washington will create a northeasterly gradient switching our winds back to a northeasterly direction with lower surface pressures developing a thermal trough across the Columbia Basin. While winds will not be strong a noticeable breeze will pick up especially across portions of Lake Koocanusa and through the Purcell Trench in North Idaho. Speeds should remain at or below 20 mph though.   

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY): 

     Upper level ridging will remain in control of our weather throughout much of this period with a couple of items to keep an eye on. A shortwave will brush along the Canadian border Saturday into Sunday which will once again cause surface pressure falls east of the Continental Divide along with strengthening surface pressure rises along the Washington coast. This will lead to breezy conditions once again over the weekend although winds do not look to be as strong as those observed on Tuesday. Perhaps the more interesting aspect of the forecast will resolve around a weak upper level low that will develop along the California and southern Oregon coastline by Thursday. This feature is anticipated to track north and eventually northeast with the latest models favoring a track across Central Idaho into Southwest Montana. If this feature should shift further north or if a vort max is spun up by a cluster of thunderstorms across Oregon on Friday or Saturday then the weather up here will be more unsettled and potentially with an increased threat of high based nocturnal and early morning showers and thunderstorms. For now am favoring the Continental Divide and far southern Sanders County for the potential of showers and thunderstorms mainly Saturday evening and overnight and continuing through Sunday but this will need to be monitored. By Monday the weak upper level low should have shifted east with a stable and warm airmass returning to the Northern Rockies. Fire danger will begin to become an increasing concern as we are now almost a week since our last significant rains and the gusty winds experienced on Tuesday will only serve to further dry out our already drying fuels.