North Idaho Fire and Aviation

Fire Weather Discussion as of 6:00 p.m. PDT, Tuesday, July 7, 2026:

     Potentially active 24 hours ahead for our region with the first threat being elevated, forced convection generating isolated to scattered high based showers and thunderstorms followed by very dry and breezy to locally windy conditions on Wednesday from late morning through evening. A shortwave disturbance will pass through the region overnight into Wednesday morning generating enough mid level instability to kick off some high based convection which several models have consistently shown. Many times this convection is not handled well and past experience has shown that the set up looks good to generate elevated, forced convection. The main threats with this convection, if it develops, will be narrow precipitation cores from high cloud bases near 12,000 feet above sea level coupled with gusty, erratic winds and dry lightning strikes outside of precipitation cores. These cells will also be moving along at a decent clip from the southwest to northeast around 30 mph so even under the most intense precipitation cores, precipitation amounts likely won't amount to more than 0.10 inches. This convection will shift east out of the region by mid to late morning on Wednesday followed up by breezy southwest winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with local gusts up to 30 mph. This coupled with minimum relative humidity values of 15 to 25 % during peak daytime heating Wednesday afternoon will result in near critical fire conditions being met. Although no fire weather watches or red flag warnings have been currently issued for North Idaho fire weather personnel should be prepared for a potential active period of weather for the next 24 hours due to extremely dry conditions and the combination of lightning strikes, low relative humidity values, breezy conditions and continued above average temperatures.

Aviation discussion as of 6:00 p.m. PDT Tuesday, July 7, 2026 valid through 10:00 p.m. PDT Wednesday, July 8, 2026: 

     VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period. Increasing ACCAS clouds with bases near 12,000 feet ASL and tops to 30,000 feet will rapidly develop overnight with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Local brief MVFR reduction to visibility will be possible directly within precipitation cores with gusty, erratic winds and lightning strikes being the biggest threat. Winds will pick up from the southwest by late morning Wednesday in the 15 to 25 mph range with stronger winds across ridge tops. Areas of smoke haze from regional wildfires will affect slantwise visibility somewhat but conditions should remain VFR.