Winter 2025-2026 for Northern Rockies Boundary, Bonner, Lincoln and Sanders Counties

     The summer of 2025 was one of noticeable contrasts across the Northern Rockies. Much of Northwest Montana as well as North Idaho were extremely dry and warm throughout the duration of the summer months with June being exceptionally dry across much of the region. Temperatures were also noticeably warmer than our typical summer but no real extreme hot temperatures were observed in our region. Not all areas were dry with northern Boundary County from Bonners Ferry north to the Canadian border in North Idaho and northern Lincoln County north of Troy and Libby to the Canadian border in Northwest Montana being considerably wetter than average. This was due to an abundance of disturbances that tracked into these regions and produced multiple thunderstorm outbreaks along the Canadian border. So what does the upcoming Winter season look to bring to the Northern Rockies? Hopefully this article will answer that question.

     Many in the media have been reporting that we are entering into another La Nina year across the tropical Pacific Ocean and as of this writing in late October of 2025 that is indeed correct. There is, however, an incorrect bias presented by the media as to the correlation between El Nino and La Nina and the effects of this phenomina across the Northern Rockies. The old saying that “facts doesn’t lie” applies very well in this area. The historical data from many COOP sites in our region (ie: Bonners Ferry, Sandpoint, Priest River, Eureka, Heron, etc) show that historically there is no clear correlation between El Nino and La Nina winters as far as snowfall totals in our region. To say that because we are in a La Nina year will mean our region will get a lot of snow is simply false. Conversely to say that because we are in an El Nino year means we will have a mild and dry winter is also false. According to data from NOAA our heaviest winter in recorded history across all of the region was the 1996-1997 winter which was a neutral year meaning there was no El Nino or La Nina. Looking at the other top 5 to 10 snowiest winters in recorded history for our region the numbers are evenly split between El Nino winters and La Nina winters so simply stating that we will have one or the other based on the ENSO pattern alone is simply foolish to say the least. There are many other factors that play into the winter patterns for our region of the country. One of the most consistent correlations that has preceded heavy winters for the Northern Rockies involves the previous summer season as being relatively dry or in some cases very dry and this has certainly been the case for most of the region with the exception of far northern Boundary County and far northern Lincoln County in North Idaho/Northwest Montana respectively. These areas actually had a rather wet summer due to abundant summer thunderstorm activity. Overall the region had a very dry to extremely dry summer as a whole. Does that mean that Winter 2025-2026 will be a heavy one? Read on for more details.

     The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for an overall “mild and wet” winter season for the Northern Rockies which would indicate frequent storms and more likely higher snow levels similar to the Winter of 2024-2025 which saw an overall average amount of precipitation during meteorological winter (December through February) to slightly wetter than average. The winter of 2024-2025 was also dominated by La Nina yet featured snow levels that were largely above most valley floors and mainly at or above 3500 to 4000 feet on average. Surprisingly by the end of the winter season (the end of March) valley snowfall ended up well below seasonal averages with mountain snowfall ending up overall below average which is what led to a below to much below average summer runoff season. The Farmer’s Almanac however is forecasting our region to see a cool to cold and snowy winter which would indicate frequent storms originating from more northern latitudes and less of the more typical weather systems that feature warm air advection driving precipitation which is what results in our area typically seeing snow at the beginning of the storm that transitions over to rain and ends in a sloppy mess. Here is what the Climate Prediction Center(CPC) is showing for the country for meteorological winter (December through February):

The pictures above show that the CPC overall is favoring our region in the Northern Rockies to have temperatures leaning towards below average (40-50%) odds and for precipitation to be leaning towards above average (also 40-50%) odds. In layman’s terms this simply means that they are suggesting that the odds favor our region to have a cooler and wetter than average winter season. But does this mean that we will see a lot of snow down on valley floors where people reside? It is possible but the CPC is not necessarily saying that is the case. After studying conditions and doing a considerable amount of research here is what I am anticipating for the Winter of 2025-2026 here in North Idaho and Northwest Montana’s Bonner and Boundary Counties and Lincoln and Sanders Counties.

     Overall I am more inclined to believe that the CPC’s prediction as well as the Farmer’s Almanac prediction have a greater likelihood of coming to pass for our region. Overall I believe our mountains will see an above average to potentially well above average snowfall winter which would make our ski resorts (Schweitzer, Big Mountain and Turner) VERY HAPPY should this come to pass while down in the valley areas I am anticipating near to above average snowfall as well but not to the level of elevations above around 4000 feet. The reason for my thinking this way goes back to looking back historically as to what patterns have led to our past above average snowfall winters. All of the snowier winters in the Northern Rockies have featured the following:

1. An overall negative phase of the PNA (Pacific North American) pattern.

2. An overall negative phase of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) pattern.

3. An overall dry to very dry summer season leading up to the winter season (the exception to this year has been those locations along the Canadian border in northern Boundary and Lincoln Counties which saw well above average summer rainfall but as a whole our region was dry to very dry this summer).

4. A rather cold winter overall with temperatures near or below historical averages for much of the winter with December overall featuring the coldest readings and some moderation heading into February.

The negative phase of the PNA pattern is critical to maintaining heavier snowfall across our region. Below is a diagram courtesy of NOAA of both the positive and negative phases of the PNA pattern:

      As you can see with the negative phase of the PNA pattern upper level low pressure dominates the Western US and more importantly Western Canada as the upper level low pressure area gets anchored across Western Canada likely due to an abundance of snow cover across specifically British Columbia. It is also widely known that La Nina years "tend" to favor the negative phase of the PNA pattern which, when a La Nina year is combined with an active cycle of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) helps to keep reloading the overall negative phase of the PNA pattern. The positive phase of the PNA pattern during the winter months often features mild and wet conditions for our area as storm systems track over the Western US upper level ridge and produce a lot of warm air advection thus bringing high snow levels and an abundance of rainfall. The negative phase of the PNA pattern also tends to feature a negative phase of the NOA(North Atlantic Oscillation) pattern which helps to drive a stronger jet stream along the Eastern US seaboard and prevents the Hudson Bay low from becoming well established which is common during the positive phase of the PNA pattern. 

     In summary, based on the research completed I am somewhat confident that our region will see near to above average snowfall although how much remains to be seen. The mountains do look to see a healthy snowpack this winter with valley locations certainly possible to see that as well but snow levels can be fickle around our region and a 500 foot elevation difference can make all the difference in the world. As for temperatures, I anticipate cooler than average temperatures with a high likelihood of at least one or two sharp cold snaps but likely nothing record breaking like what happened 2 years ago. We will likely see some below zero weather which is common for our area but frigid, frigid temperatures like what occurred back in January 2024 is not looking likely to happen, possible but not likely. Plows and shovels should get much more use this winter than they have the past 2 winters and it is certainly possible that some of our valley locations could see upwards of 100 inches of snowfall. Average snowfall for various communities in our region is available in the "Climate of North Idaho/NW Montana" on the front page of the website. Most valley areas in our region average between 60-85 inches of snowfall for the entire winter and I would anticipate around that amount if not more for the upcoming winter.

     As of this writing on October 30, 2025 we are already seeing a decent early season snowpack develop across British Columbia along with warmer waters across Hudson Bay in Canada. If the snowpack across British Columbia can continue to grow and expand as well as the waters of Hudson Bay taking longer to cool and eventually freeze over these factors would also likely play a large roll in promoting the negative phase of the PNA pattern and driving storms into our region from the northwest rather than from the southwest. It would also allow more frequent outbreaks of colder air to move into the area from the north. For the record, as of this writing the PNA pattern is in a weak positive phase and that is anticipated to continue for a couple more weeks. I anticipate that the PNA pattern should flip to negative to strongly negative by sometime later in November or December. If that does occur then anticipate a sharp change in the overall weather pattern to a much colder and stormier one for our region. One final thought. With our relatively mild and wet winter last winter in 2024-2025 there was an incredible amount of dull and foggy days and although our region typically doesn't see much sunshine during the winter months, last winter was rather exceptional for how persistent and long lasting the low clouds were in the valleys. Although I am fairly confident that we will see a colder and possibly snowier winter, this also increases the likelihood that we will also see more sunshine as well with more frequent colder systems passing through and helping keep the atmosphere mixed which prevents persistent low clouds and fog in the valleys. As always, time will tell. If you would like more information or have further questions feel free to reach out on the webpage in the "About" section where there is a place to contact me.